Obama's European Missile Policy

One point has to made immediately - nothing that President Obama does in the arena of international politics can be judged on face value. This being said and fully acknowledged it is almost impossible to judge clearly and with any degree of certainty what happen on the issue of the protective missile shield in Eastern Europe.



Obama has announced that the Bush program for defensive missiles in Poland and coordinated tracking equipment in the Czech Republic has been cancelled. The reasons given for this change in policy are that a reevaluation of the missile threat from Iran has lessened the perceived risk to Europe and that a better, less expensive, more effective defense system was going to be implemented. Of course that so described "defense system" was not in any way defined. The possible intended purposes of this Obama action are numerous:

The Putin Ploy: Just a few days ago, Obama was dealt a blow by Putin when he announced that UN sanctions against Iran were just not going to happen. The said American proposed Eastern Europe missile system has been strongly opposed by Russia and maybe its cancellation was in trade for assistance from Russia to curtail the Iranian nuclear program. Supporting this thought is the fact that Russia has already stated that this cancellation was merely "the correction of a Bush error" and was not deserving of any type of reciprocal accommodation. Anything that comes out of Moscow has to be automatically considered misleading and examined for hidden, truthful meaning. Thus there very well could be some pending consideration from Russia on Iran.

The Chavez Con: Venezuela has just become the beneficiary of a multi-billion dollar military hardware credit from Russia. Even the remotest possibility that Hugo Chavez could become armed with sophisticated weapons including missiles that could reach the USA could well have motivated Obama to trade the Eastern European missile system for a Russian guarantee of a missile free Venezuela. Note that Obama reserved a future review of the Iranian situation to consider if the cancelled missile system was in fact a need. This could be an Obama "cover your tail" position to insure that Russia followed through with Chavez.

The Pre-Meeting Pose: America has meetings of significant international consequences nearing with Russia and with Iran and with North Korea. Obama may well believe that some psychological gain can be realized if a "good guy" mantle is placed on his shoulders and those of his representatives. What better way to earn this perception than to voluntarily abandon a missile program.

This type of conjecture can go on ad nauseam and would include a scenario of a surrender of a democracy protecting defense policy by a socialist non-aggressive President to an example of yet another international affairs error by the current Administration. It could also mean that Obama has realized that America just does not have enough in resources to continue protecting the world and focus must return to the immediate best interests of American citizens.

This last sentiment is really wishful thinking.