Friday, October 2, 2009

Steve Forbes made it perfectly clear in an interview today that the American economy will not improve until the American dollar once again becomes strong. His biggest complaint was that former President Bush did not act to strengthen the dollar when the recession started and now President Obama was also failing in that department. His rational is very good because unless the dollar becomes stronger there will be little if any desire on the part of the American financial industry to loan money. This kills growth in the American small business sector of the economy and cripples the overall national economy.

This small business sector of our economy is vital to the well being of America. A full 38% of the American GDP [Gross Domestic Product] comes from small business activity and these same entities employ 50% of the American work force. The media only focuses on big industrial failures and ignores the fact that 100s of thousands of small businesses have closed. Any walk though a strip mall or a small business center quickly demonstrates this fact. Until these businesses grow or are reestablished there will be no real increase in our employment levels. Many economists have opined that unemployment will continue to grow into and through 2010 and then level off. Slowly, with an emphasis on slowly, thereafter Americans will begin to be rehired.

Not helping this economic situation is the refusal of the banking industry to take an economic leap of faith in Americans and in the American small business sector by relaxing personal credit. Most Americans spend money via credit cards and then regularly repay those balances. There is no question that charge card defaults are at a record level, but to aggravate the situation the banks have this year withdrawn $1.25 Trillion in available credit lines from active credit cards. A full 10% of all standard credit cards have been cancelled outright and the banking industry has indicated that it will close another $1.5 Trillion in credit card lines of credit in 2010. The obvious victim is small business because spending, even on credit, allows growth and that means hiring.

Obama's focus must be on strengthening the dollar and pressuring the banks to make money available to creditworthy Americans. His efforts this week, particularly the sojourn to Copenhagen, reveal his lack of economic knowledge or maybe just his lack of interest.

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